The Risks and Tradeoffs of Digital Warfare

In today’s increasingly digitized world, the benefits of digital technology are undeniable. However, along with these benefits come numerous downsides, particularly in terms of security and vulnerability. This is especially apparent in the context of warfare, where armies and states heavily rely on digital capabilities for navigation, command and control, logistics, intelligence, and targeting.

The advent of digital technologies has revolutionized warfare, allowing for precision-guided munitions and interconnected networks of sensors and shooters. This technology has provided significant advantages for states that have adopted these systems. However, it has also made them vulnerable to various types of attacks. Early warning satellites, which are crucial for nuclear deterrence, could be manipulated or hacked, potentially leading to unintended nuclear strikes. Cyberattacks and electromagnetic assaults could disable air defenses and sabotage infrastructure, rendering digital technologies useless. Additionally, the reliance on high-tech components poses supply chain risks, where the disruption of the supply of microchips could paralyze militaries.

The reliance on digital technology is even more precarious when it comes to intelligence. Sensitive information stored, processed, and transmitted through digital means can be a valuable asset for states, but it also presents an attractive target for cyberattacks and data breaches. The theft of over 20 million records from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management in 2015 demonstrated the dangers of poorly secured digital data storage. Moreover, internal threats, such as the case of Edward Snowden, highlight the vulnerability of intelligence operations to insider threats.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a case in point, where efforts to gain the upper hand in digital warfare are shaping the physical conflict. Ukraine has utilized GPS-guided artillery, small drones, and civilian cell phone videos to strike Russian targets, demonstrating the potential advantages of digital technologies in asymmetric warfare. However, Russia’s cyberattacks and electronic warfare have exposed the fragility of these systems and the potential unreliability of digital capabilities.

While it may be tempting to completely reject digital technologies in favor of analog ones, this is neither realistic nor cost-effective. Instead, governments must strive to strike a balance between investing in digital capabilities and mitigating the risks associated with them. Building resilience against digital threats is a complex task that requires careful consideration of redundancy, limitations on foreign technology companies, and robust security measures.

The United States, along with other countries, must continue to work towards insulating themselves from digital attacks. This necessitates managing the tradeoffs between digital capabilities and vulnerabilities. While there is no foolproof solution, it is crucial for governments to prioritize the security of their digital systems and develop strategies to mitigate the risks.

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